Shahid Beheshti UniversityInternational Journal of New Political Economy3060-62336120250501Exchange Overshooting and Currency Substitution in Iran12110517010.48308/jep.2024.236314.1176ENEsmaielAbounooriProfessor of Econometrics & Social Statistics, Department of Economics, Semnan University, Semnan, Iran
.0000-0003-4168-7163RahmanSaadatAssociate Professor of Economics
Department of Economics, Semnan University, Semnan-Iran0000-0002-2600-4128Seyed MansourHeshmati SanzighiPhD Student of Economics,
Department of Economics, Semnan University, Semnan-IranJournal Article20240719If a country's domestic currency fails to perform its functions, foreign currency substitution occurs. This phenomenon is common in developing countries and is influenced by various economic and political factors. The main objective of this research is to estimate the relationship between exchange rate overshooting and currency substitution in Iran. We first use the Kamin & Ericsson method (2003) to evaluate the amount of circulating foreign currency and currency substitution within the Iranian economy, using annual data from 1979 to 2020. Then, we apply the ARDL method to estimate the impact of exchange rate overshooting on currency substitution. The long-term results indicate that exchange rate overshooting consistently increases currency substitution in Iran. Conversely, gross domestic product negatively affects currency substitution, while war and sanctions moderate this effect. Furthermore, the impact of war is greater than that of sanctions. According to the error correction coefficient (-0.92), it takes about 13 months to reach long-term equilibrium. Understanding the relationship between currency substitution and overshooting helps policymakers design better strategies for managing exchange rates and monetary policy.https://jep.sbu.ac.ir/article_105170_b362d3ef1362477eef9b9c8abf8d3dc6.pdfShahid Beheshti UniversityInternational Journal of New Political Economy3060-62336120250501Customer segmentation using the extended RFMP model based on Customer lifetime value and data mining234610529910.48308/jep.2025.236491.1183ENAbdolahSaediAssistant Professor of Management Department. Faculty of Management and Economics. University of Lorestan. Khorramabad . Iran0000-0001-7812-1978MeysamAbbasiMaster of IT Management , Faculty of Management & Economic, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, IranAliehMehdi NejadPhD candidate at the Department Of Management, Faculty of Management and Economic,Sistan and Baluchestan University, Zahedan, IranJournal Article20240804One important way for identifying customers is clustering them to congruent segments. Skillfully clustering can be caused by identifying profitable customers by companies, understanding their requirement and allot their own resources in an appropriate way. We can also examine the change in the clustering of customers after the implementation of any economic policy and formulate and implement suitable public policies accordingly. The main goal of a recent study is clustering and identifying customers using of extended RFMP model. The study was done on 6665 customers of the Zahedan Refah chain store. According to this, after identification, the extended RFMP amounts (sum of recency, frequency, monetary and periodicity) weight of each variable was identified according to the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). At the next stage, optimal clusters number was specified by using Silhouette and Davies Bouldin indexes and customers were clustered with the K-means algorithm and finally, customers were preferred according to customer lifetime value. According to results, customers were divided into 3 parts and their traits were analyzed. Background can be provided for codifying relationship strategies with customers by using of recent study results.https://jep.sbu.ac.ir/article_105299_03fd15d34c6723a0cf16363aaea85339.pdfShahid Beheshti UniversityInternational Journal of New Political Economy3060-62336120250501Development of Digital Economy, Human Development Solution in Iran478210558910.48308/jep.2025.237697.1196ENSaeedKian PoorAssistant Professor, Department of Economics, Payame Noor University (PNU), Tehran, Iran0000-0002-4827-4970MohsenHajianDepartment of Economics, Payame Noor University (PNU), Tehran, Iran0000-0002-6897-1386Journal Article20241211Recent information and communication technology developments have led to digitizing society and countries . The increase in productivity and efficiency of these societies , together with digitization , has sparked the expectation that developing the digital economy in Iran will lead to human development . In this research , the digital economy index of 31 provinces of Iran was first ranked using Principal Component Analysis ( PCA ) . Then , they were placed in three clusters : Very Suitable , Suitable and Very Unsuitable . In the next step , Copula’s approach was applied to investigate the role of the digital economy in human development . The results showed a correlation between the human development of Iran's provinces and the digital economy development of Iran's provinces . Based on this , the development of digital economy in the provinces of Iran can be a way for human development .https://jep.sbu.ac.ir/article_105589_cd8587e572c5d818e46ae458508f8462.pdfShahid Beheshti UniversityInternational Journal of New Political Economy3060-62336120250501Trade agreements, Complex network and Foreign Direct Investment: An application of a three-dimensional panel model8311210569810.48308/jep.2025.237391.1191ENAliAbedighahiPhD. in International Economics, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Management, and Social Sciences, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran0009-0007-6778-2296SakineOwjimehrShiraz univerity0000-0002-6278-7932Ali HusseinSamadiProfessor in the Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Management, and Social Sciences, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran0000-0002-8491-6192Journal Article20241229Given the importance and role of foreign direct investment in the development of countries, this study examines the effect of three types of variables, including the variable of membership in trade agreements, network index variables, and economic variables on attracting foreign direct investment. In this context, data from eleven selected countries from the BRICS, Shanghai, D8, and ECO trade agreements during the years 2009-2023 have been utilized within the framework of a three-dimensional panel model. The results indicate that the effect of membership in the ECO trade area on foreign direct investment in member countries is significant and positive, while the effects of other regions are not significant. The effects of two network indices, degree and PageRank, are significant and direct, and the effects of economic variables such as GDP per capita, trade openness, and governance quality on foreign investment are positive, while the effect of the inflation rate variable is negative. This research, while highlighting the importance of membership in trade areas, increasing network communications and improving economic indices, and we think it may offer specific recommendations for policymakers aimed at enhancing the status of foreign direct investment in selected countries, including Iran.https://jep.sbu.ac.ir/article_105698_7eb7d7bd8fabd6944b4b5fb98c56c2a0.pdfShahid Beheshti UniversityInternational Journal of New Political Economy3060-62336120250501The Investigation of TSE Efficiency: An Emerging Market involved in pandemic, and Economic Sanctions11314010532110.48308/jep.2025.236393.1178ENMehrdadSadr AraAssistant Professor, Department of Economics and Accounting, University of Guilan, Iran.Seyed RezaMiraskariAssistant Professor, Department of Economics and Accounting, University of Guilan, Iran.Journal Article20240724This study examines the efficiency of Iranian capital market after the imposition of economic sanctions, currency crisis and Covid 19 pandemic. Some events after 2008 have fundamentally changed the Iranian capital market environment and we expect these reforms to change the level of market efficiency. This research investigates the daily returns behavior in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) utilizing autocorrelation, augmented Dickey-Fuller, and runs tests over the period 2008-2022. The statistical significance of the data was assessed using both parametric and nonparametric test statistics. The results confirm that the Tehran Stock Exchange index has been affected by the Covid-19 pandemic crisis. It was also further revealed that economic and banking sanctions have had a direct impact on the Iranian economy and the Tehran Stock Exchange market, such that after the approval of each of the sanctions, significant structural failures were observed in the trend of the Tehran Stock Exchange index. And also the results indicate that all tests don’t support that TSE daily returns follow random walk. Therefore, we conclude that in the Iranian capital market, abnormal returns can still be obtained by using technical and fundamental analysis.The study's contribution might have been compromised by the absence of socio-demographic, technical, financial and other significant policy factors from the analysis.This paper is the first to examine the efficiency of the capital market at a weak form, during the period of the Covid-19 pandemic and the imposition of international sanctions against the Iranian economy.https://jep.sbu.ac.ir/article_105321_aaf2d17618cb0614c23266276fdd86e4.pdfShahid Beheshti UniversityInternational Journal of New Political Economy3060-62336120250501Microfinance Evolution and Development: A Critical Exploration14117810564910.48308/jep.2025.237913.1198ENMusiliuOkesinaPhD, Development Finance, Leeds Beckett University, Leeds, United Kingdom.Journal Article20241210No one theory accounts for the origin of microfinance because informal savings and credit unions have operated for centuries in many parts of the world. As such, the foundations of microfinance lie in traditional savings and community-based contribution schemes which are familiar to many cultures. However, the industrialisation and formalisation of these practices into regulated microfinance institutions (MFIs) brought a structured approach intended to address poverty, financial exclusion, and economic empowerment. This paper examines the effectiveness of microfinance as a development tool to promote poverty alleviation, gender empowerment, and financial inclusion, especially in the Global South. This study employs a historical and critical literature review methodology, analysing peer-reviewed articles, policy documents, and empirical studies to trace the evolution of microfinance and its impact on financial inclusion, poverty alleviation, and gender empowerment. By synthesizing diverse perspectives from academic discourse, policy reports, and case studies, the research critically examines microfinance’s transformation from a development-oriented tool to a commercialized financial sector. The study finds that the commercialisation of microfinance has reshaped its core mission, frequently side-lining social objectives for profitability and financial sustainability. This review and analysis serve as a resource for scholars, policymakers, and MFI clients alike, offering insights into the sector’s trends, challenges, and future directions.https://jep.sbu.ac.ir/article_105649_b73ff7f084a69c536145f19824d7283e.pdfShahid Beheshti UniversityInternational Journal of New Political Economy3060-62336120250501Analysis of Financial Markets of selected countries: An approach to Quantum Mechanics in Economics17921010530010.48308/jep.2025.237198.1190ENMaryamZarePHD student in Economics department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Shiraz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Iran0000-0001-8649-0538HashemZareDepartment of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Shiraz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Iran0000-0002-4141-0589MehrzadEbrahimiDepartment of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Shiraz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Iran0000-0001-8834-3160AliHaghighatDepartment of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Shiraz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Iran0009-0000-5310-4952Journal Article20241015The stock market of any country plays an effective role in attracting financial resources and contributing to the development of that country. The stock market also has a significant importance in economic recession and prosperity, which are affected by national macro policies. Effective political decisions made by politicians can lead to the attraction of significantly more capital. Thus, analyzing the stock market using an accurate analytical system is essential. Following Alves et al.’s (2020) study that examined the stock market efficiency index of different countries, the present study selected and compared the stock markets in Iran, Germany, England, Brazil, Turkey, Russia, Japan, Switzerland, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, and India based on the daily data of the stock markets from 2013 to 2023. Using Schrödinger's equation and Hamilton's expansion, the present study adopted the financial quantum approach to solve the wave function and draw and compare the distribution and average rate of return diagrams. The data from the stock markets of the selected countries indicated the highest fluctuations but less efficiency in the Turkish stock market, while the lowest range of fluctuations and higher efficiency were found in the British stock market. Moreover, the British stock market has the minimum average rate of return, the minimum risk, and the maximum transparency, while the Turkish stock market has the maximum average rate of return, the highest risk, and the lowest transparency.https://jep.sbu.ac.ir/article_105300_427e7b560791241bc2c96df6ab7f5c8b.pdfShahid Beheshti UniversityInternational Journal of New Political Economy3060-62336120250501Identifying the Underlying Factors of Emotional Behavior in Iran's Capital Market21124110515610.48308/jep.2024.236462.1184ENZeinabMokhtari KhatunabadPh.D. Candidate, Faculty of Economics, Management and Commerce, Tabriz University, Tabriz, IranJafarHaghighatProfessor of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Management and Commerce, Tabriz University, Tabriz, IranAliRezaFazlzadehAssociate Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Management and Commerce, Tabriz University, Tabriz, IranZahraKarimiAssociate Professor of Economics, Faculty of Economics & Amp; Management, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, IranJournal Article20240814Due to the prominence of the capital market as a financing source for the country's industries and the problems of emotional behavior in investment, the key aim of this study is to recognize the underlying factors, causes, and challenges of emotional behavior and to identify management strategies for emotional behavior in Iran's capital market. The statistical population of the present study consists of professors, experts, and specialists in the field of managing emotional behavior and investing in the capital market, as well as real shareholders with experience, who were selected by purposive sampling and with maximum diversity until reaching theoretical saturation of 12 people. In this study, it was tried to analyze the data achieved from the interview by using Clarke and Braun's six-stage thematic analysis qualitative research method and by using open, central, and selective coding. Regarding the attained results, 16 main themes were identified for the underlying factors of emotional behavior and 8 main themes were identified for the causes of emotional behavior. The studied sample achieved results analysis indicate that 6 main strategies have been identified for managing emotional behavior, which are: awareness, independence of action, market orientation, insurance tools, problem-solving and correct decision-making, and emotion control.https://jep.sbu.ac.ir/article_105156_40801514b5263c4efb764688b2c51a45.pdfShahid Beheshti UniversityInternational Journal of New Political Economy3060-62336120250501Iran's Political Opportunities and Challenges after Permanent Membership in the SCO based on the SWOT Model.24326610555010.48308/jep.2025.237923.1199ENAmir MohammadHaji YousefiAssociate Professor of International Relations, Faculty of Economics and Political Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran0000-0001-8795-5018ShamimehShirkhaniMaster's degree in Central Asia and Caucasus Regional Studies, ECO College of Insurance, Allameh Tabatabai University, Tehran, Iran0009-0005-7098-9883Journal Article20241211Iran's nearly two-decade-long pursuit of full membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) culminated at the 21st Summit on September 17, 2021, in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, when the country was formally accepted as a permanent member. While Iran’s accession marks a significant diplomatic achievement, it also presents notable political implications that warrant closer examination. This study seeks to address the question: “What are the political opportunities and challenges facing Iran following its full membership in the SCO?” Using the SWOT analysis framework, we explore the strategic prospects and potential obstacles Iran may encounter. Our findings indicate several opportunities for Iran, including fostering interdependence, counterbalancing global hegemonic influences, combating extremism and drug trafficking, and altering security perspectives on Iran. However, challenges persist, such as disparities in power and bargaining influence among the SCO members, a tendency to limit mutual cooperation, and ambiguities concerning the organization's primary identity. Finally, the study suggests strategies to enhance Iran’s strategic benfits and effectiveness within the SCO.https://jep.sbu.ac.ir/article_105550_ddbd6d94e01e46860d99a42c86ea74ff.pdfShahid Beheshti UniversityInternational Journal of New Political Economy3060-62336120250501Creative Destruction and the Golden Triangle: Evidence from the PSTR model26729710533910.48308/jep.2025.236784.1187ENHassanDaliriAssociate Professor of Economics, Golestan University,Golestan, Iran0000-0002-8246-935XJournal Article20240906This research aimed to investigate the establishment of the golden triangle hypothesis, which emphasizes the importance of a balanced interaction between the state, civil society, and the market in fostering creative destruction and innovation. Data were collected from 107 countries and analyzed using Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) models. Two primary indexes were developed: the Golden Area Index, representing the area of the golden triangle for each country and year, and the Golden Difference Index, representing the standard deviation of the three indicators (state, civil society, and market) for each country and year. These were combined to create the Golden Threshold Index to comprehensively represent the golden triangle hypothesis. The estimation results, obtained for two groups of countries (all sample of 107 countries and a subset of 78 upper-middle and high-income economies), revealed that an increase in the Golden Area Index is associated with improved innovation growth and enhanced creative destruction. Conversely, an increase in disparity among the three pillars of the golden triangle leads to a decrease in innovation growth and a halt in creative destruction. Additionally, an increase in the Golden Threshold Index correlates with increased innovation growth and the facilitation of creative destruction. The study confirms the significance of the golden triangle hypothesis in promoting innovation and creative destruction. It highlights the necessity of maintaining a balanced interplay among the state, civil society, and market forces to foster an environment conducive to sustainable economic growth.https://jep.sbu.ac.ir/article_105339_7e265081c998d6c4e26eb0a0e4ff4c32.pdfShahid Beheshti UniversityInternational Journal of New Political Economy3060-62336120250501Of the Sins of Khalil Maleki: A Political Economy of a Unique Phenomenon29931710534010.48308/jep.2025.105340ENHomaKatouzianSt Antony’s College; Member, the Faulty of Oriental Studies, University of Oxford, Oxford, UKJournal Article20250206Khalil Maleki was a unique phenomenon in the politics of twentieth-century Iran. Once in an article, I described him as ‘the odd intellectual out’, and in another, I wrote about his ‘strange politics’. While he was a committed socialist, unlike most other political forces he believed in dialogue and peaceful political activity, which virtually made him a target for political smear campaigns, although this did not save him from being put on military trial and imprisoned by the shah’s regime! These attributes summarise some of what I call his sins but there are more, and they all deserve to be mentioned briefly in this Paper. By using a political economy approach, this article investigates the issue in question.https://jep.sbu.ac.ir/article_105340_4d43305472a44de007ad22c2afcc282f.pdfShahid Beheshti UniversityInternational Journal of New Political Economy3060-62336120250501The Paradox of women's high-level education and low share in managerial positions in Iran: Economic Gender Inequality31935810511410.48308/jep.2024.236761.1188ENYadollahDadgarEmeritus Professor of Economics, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran. Iran0000-0001-5040-9531RohollahNazariPh.D. of Economics, Ferdowsi University, Mashhad, Iran0009-0002-7494-471XFatemehFahimifarPh.D. of Economics, Allamah Tabatabaei University, Tehran, Iran.0009-0007-3981-6647Journal Article20240903On the one hand, women across the globe play a vital role in society and the economy, contributing to the achievement of sustainable development goals. On the other hand, in many countries, higher levels of education among women have been linked to increased participation in the labor force and managerial positions. However, in Iran, a gender gap persists in women’s access to career advancement and managerial roles, despite their growing access to higher education. This creates a paradox: while women’s educational attainment has risen, their representation remains relatively low. This contradiction underscores the relevance of the key terms in this article’s title—gender inequality and paradox. Using the logit method, micro labor force data from Iran, this article examines the gender gap and factors influencing women’s employment in managerial positions. By using household budget data, the model analysis indicates that in Iran, only 16.6% of managers are women (83.4% men), placing the country among the bottom four in terms of the gender gap index. The findings reveal that higher education levels, the number of literates, and the number of employed members in a household positively influence women's willingness to pursue managerial positions. Conversely, factors such as being the head of the household, being married, household size, miscellaneous income sources, and gender discrimination negatively impact women's willingness to accept managerial roles in Iran. A key policy implication of this study is the importance of selecting managers—regardless of gender—based on qualifications, which contribute to reducing gender inequality in managerial positions.https://jep.sbu.ac.ir/article_105114_f95a1f5bce9f6e43c8c7e212b1dc7727.pdf