https://jep.sbu.ac.ir/ International Journal of New Political Economy en daily 1 Wed, 01 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0330 Wed, 01 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0330 https://jep.sbu.ac.ir/article_106469.html This study examines the consequences of currency suppression policies on exchange rate overshootings (EROs) in Iran, focusing on the country's exchange rate trajectory from 1959 to 2022. An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) econometric model—covering short-run, long-run, and error-correction dynamics—is used to estimate the relationships among key variables, including monetary shocks, national output, fiscal policy, oil shocks, terms of trade, the openness index, and the inflation-exchange rate growth gap (used as a proxy for suppression). Findings indicate that while suppression may temporarily stabilize the currency, it leads to pressure accumulation—akin to a springback effect—that triggers sharp and abrupt EROs, especially under depleted reserves and mounting distortions. Persisting with fixed administrative rates increases economical uncertainty, weakens long-term investment incentives, raises inflation expectations, and undermines productive and export capacities. Limited openness index—particularly restrictions on trade and capital flows—has intensified the negative impacts of currency suppression by weakening market adjustment to external shocks. The study concludes that current policies require urgent reassessment. A transition to a managed floating regime, alongside greater central bank independence, increased policy transparency, structural production reforms, and reduced fiscal reliance on foreign exchange revenues, is essential. These reforms would promote sustainable exchange rate stability and enhance Iran’s resilience to domestic and external economic shocks. https://jep.sbu.ac.ir/article_106607.html Financing remains one of the most critical challenges for knowledge-based, startup, and technology-oriented companies, particularly in developing innovation ecosystems such as Iran. These enterprises often face financial constraints due to their high risk, lack of tangible assets, and limited access to traditional credit channels. Consequently, selecting an appropriate financing method plays a decisive role in their survival, growth, and long-term competitiveness. This study aims to identify and prioritize the main factors influencing the choice of financing methods across three categories of knowledge-based firms-startup, innovative, and technology-based companies. Employing a mixed-method research design, the study integrates Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) to validate the conceptual model and the TOPSIS technique to prioritize alternative financing strategies. Through a comprehensive literature review and semi-structured interviews with experts and executives, eight principal dimensions and forty-six sub-factors were identified, encompassing financier-related factors, financial characteristics, macroeconomic conditions, technological features, legal and organizational factors, cultural and social factors, market dynamics, and feasibility study considerations. The results reveal that market and competitive conditions exert the greatest influence on financing decisions in startups, macroeconomic stability is most critical for innovative firms, and legal-organizational structures dominate in technology-based enterprises. The study contributes both theoretically and practically by presenting an integrated analytical framework that links financial behavior with strategic decision-making in knowledge-based firms. The findings provide actionable insights for entrepreneurs, investors, and policymakers seeking to strengthen financing infrastructures and promote innovation-driven economic growth in emerging economies such as Iran https://jep.sbu.ac.ir/article_106608.html In today’s rapidly changing economic environment, improving the financial performance of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) is essential, given their critical role in economic growth. Positive psychological capital has been identified as an internal resource with strong potential to enhance organizational outcomes. Yet, the processes through which it affects financial performance and the influence of managers’ financial literacy remain unclear. This study examines whether financial literacy moderates the relationship between positive psychological capital and SME financial performance. The research employed an applied, descriptive-survey design with correlational analysis. The population consisted of SME managers in the northern provinces of Iran: Gilan, Mazandaran, and Golestan. Using Cochran’s formula and stratified random sampling, 384 managers were selected, with 277 valid responses collected from October 2023 to March 2024 (72% response rate). Data were gathered using three instruments: Luthans et al.’s (2007) standardized positive psychological capital questionnaire, and two researcher-developed tools assessing financial literacy and financial performance. Structural equation modeling was conducted using SmartPLS version 3. Findings revealed a positive and significant relationship between psychological capital and financial performance (β = 0.15, p = 0.01). Each dimension—self-efficacy, hope, resilience, and optimism showed significant direct effects. Financial literacy strengthened this relationship (β = 0.07, p = 0.03), with only the financial behavior dimension acting as a significant moderator (β = 0.14, p < 0.01), while other dimensions (attitude, investment knowledge, market literacy, and regulatory awareness) were not significant. These results suggest that psychological capital is a robust predictor of SME financial performance. Moreover, financial literacy, particularly responsible behaviors such as budgeting, planning, and cash flow management, provides a vital context for converting psychological strengths into tangible financial results. The study underscores the need for integrated training programs to simultaneously enhance managers’ psychological capital and practical financial skills https://jep.sbu.ac.ir/article_106684.html The COVID-19 pandemic has emerged as one of the most significant public health crises in recent decades, exerting far-reaching effects not only on human health but also on global economies and financial markets. Its disruptive nature created unprecedented uncertainty, making it essential to understand sector-specific impacts. This study examines the consequences of the pandemic for the performance of power generation companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange during the period from April 2020 to July 2023. To achieve this, a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model was employed, incorporating several key variables such as COVID-19 mortality and infection rates per million people, international oil prices, global gold prices, and foreign exchange rates. The empirical results indicate that higher COVID-19 mortality and infection rates exerted a significant negative effect on the performance of power generation companies, reflecting the sensitivity of this sector to public health shocks. Conversely, increases in oil prices and exchange rates were associated with improved company performance, while rising gold prices had adverse effects. These findings highlight the importance of strategic policymaking to mitigate economic vulnerabilities during pandemics and strengthen market resilience in the face of future crises. https://jep.sbu.ac.ir/article_106706.html This study aims to analyze the factors underlying Iran’s limited share in global trade, with particular emphasis on the role of institutional quality. According to statistics, Iran’s share of world trade has fallen to less than 0.5 percent. Employing a gravity model of trade and bilateral trade data with 80 partner countries over the period 1996–2020, the impact of institutional quality on Iran’s trade volume was examined. The model was estimated using the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) method, which is suitable for trade data containing zero values. Contrary to theoretical expectations, which view institutional quality as a driver of trade expansion, the findings revealed that Iran’s institutional quality had a significant negative effect on the country’s trade volume. The analysis suggests that this unexpected outcome reflects Iran’s specific circumstances rather than the irrelevance of institutions. International sanctions and external pressures have steered Iran toward partners less sensitive to institutional indicators, thereby reducing trade with industrialized countries with strong institutions (such as Germany and Japan) and increasing trade with countries such as China and Turkey. In addition, chronic inflation and constraints imposed by informal institutions (e.g., ideological orientations in foreign policy) have also negatively affected foreign trade. Ultimately, the results highlight the inefficiency of Iran’s institutional framework as one of the main barriers to trade development. Accordingly, improving the quality of both formal and informal institutions, along with moving toward the production of goods with higher economic complexity, is essential for enhancing Iran’s position in global trade. https://jep.sbu.ac.ir/article_106715.html This study investigates how oil-price volatility shapes the linkages between Iraq’s macroeconomic conditions and the banking sector within a Markov-Switching Heteroskedastic VAR (MSH-VAR) framework. Using quarterly data for 2004–2022, it assesses the effects of global oil-price fluctuations on the Banking Fragility Index (BFI), real GDP, and the exchange rate. The regime-switching structure captures asymmetric and state-contingent responses, separating relatively stable phases from more turbulent periods with higher volatility and persistence. The results indicate that oil-price shocks have a strong and statistically significant effect on real GDP, while their immediate impacts on banking fragility and the exchange rate are relatively limited. In the stable regime, Iraq’s economy exhibits a greater capacity to absorb positive oil price shocks, leading to smoother and more persistent adjustments in macroeconomic indicators. Conversely, in the unstable regime, negative oil shocks generate asymmetric and pronounced adverse effects, including contractions in GDP, increased banking fragility, and heightened exchange rate volatility. The impulse response functions corroborate these regime-specific patterns and highlight the vulnerability of Iraq’s oil-dependent economy to external shocks. These findings underscore the importance of strengthening banking supervision, establishing a financial stabilization fund, improving monetary-fiscal coordination, and promoting economic diversification to enhance resilience and long-term macro-financial stability. https://jep.sbu.ac.ir/article_106736.html This study examines sustainability in BRICS countries (Brazil, China, Egypt, India, Iran, Russia, and South Africa) by analyzing the interaction of key capitals—natural, human, social, technological, and cultural—and the growing importance of human consciousness in shaping sustainability outcomes over the period from 1993 to 2024. Using a fuzzy logic methodology, the study explores the relationship between natural resource rents (% of GDP) and variables such as population, education, employment, health, and energy intensity. The results show that human capital, especially education and social awareness, is the most influential driver of sustainability. For instance, education in China (6.85) and Energy intensity level in Egypt (5.42) demonstrate strong impacts, while health expenditure in Iran (4.81) also plays a key role. These findings indicate that enhancing education, health, and cultural awareness strengthens mental adaptability, innovation, and collective decision-making. Fuzzy logic effectively manages uncertainty and complexity in policymaking, confirming that advancing human consciousness through education and health investment is vital for sustainable development. Ultimately, human choice, guided by awareness and values, determines the sustainability trajectory of BRICS nations. https://jep.sbu.ac.ir/article_106817.html Efficient human resource management (HRM), defined as the ability to achieve organizational goals with optimal use of resources, and social capital, encompassing networks, trust, and collaborative relationships, are two critical factors for the success of health systems. This study aims to develop a conceptual model illustrating how social capital influences HRM efficiency in the health system. From an objective perspective, the study is classified as applied research, as its findings can provide practical solutions for improving performance indicators and addressing HR challenges in healthcare organizations. Methodologically, the study employed a mixed-methods approach with a descriptive-survey design to comprehensively examine the relationship between social capital and HRM efficiency at Babol University of Medical Sciences. The research was conducted in two phases. In the qualitative phase, data were collected through semi-structured interviews with 10 managers and faculty members with at least seven years of relevant experience. Key concepts were extracted via content analysis and transformed into standardized questionnaire items. In the quantitative phase, the finalized questionnaire adapted from the Nahpit and Ghoshal model and validated by experts was distributed among the entire target population of 350 managers across different university departments. A sample of 183 participants was selected using simple random sampling, and reliability was confirmed with a Cronbach’s alpha of 0.919. Data were analyzed using SPSS 26 and AMOS 24 software. The results indicated that the proposed conceptual model demonstrated a good fit and that social capital has a significant positive effect on enhancing HRM efficiency in the health system. The findings highlight the importance of fostering trust, collaboration, and knowledge-sharing networks to optimize human resource performance in healthcare organizations https://jep.sbu.ac.ir/article_106810.html Greater Wealth remains a crucial aspiration for developing nations, pursued with increasing intensity in recent decades amid the rapid technological progress of developed countries. This study intends to examine and evaluate the dynamic spillover of economic freedom and dimensions of economic complexity (research, technological, and commercial) on national Wealth in 22 selected developing countries during the period from 2000 to 2023—a period when the world simultaneously experienced remarkable growth in technological products and economic complexity, alongside evident positive effects of economic freedom on noteworthy country growth rates. The selection of these countries, spanning a broad geographical expanse and showing varying degrees of growth, was informed by an era marked by crises such as the global financial crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Ukraine war. Employing the Quantile Panel Vector Autoregression (PQVAR) model and the Diebold-Yilmaz volatility spillover method, the findings show that in the lower quantiles of the wealth distribution, commercial complexity serves as the primary spillover transmitter. At the same time, per capita income is the most vulnerable recipient. In contrast, in higher quantiles, economic freedom has a central role in mitigating instability. During the aforementioned crisis periods, systemic connectedness increases, with spillovers shifting from trade and technology to income. The observations verify the critical and effective role of economic complexity and institutional freedom, as embodied in the economic freedom index, in reducing systemic vulnerability and enhancing growth stability. Accordingly, policymakers are advised to focus on improving these two indices to achieve greater Wealth and economic security in developing countries. https://jep.sbu.ac.ir/article_106818.html This study investigates the employment effects of business environment reforms using firm-level data from Nigeria. While regulatory reforms aimed at improving the ease of doing business are widely promoted as drivers of private-sector development, evidence on their labor market impact remains inconclusive in developing economies. Employing a quasi-experimental framework, we estimate treatment effects using Regression Adjustment, Inverse Probability Weighted Regression Adjustment, and Nearest-Neighbor Matching estimators. The results indicate that firms benefiting from reform-related improvements exhibit significantly higher labor employment compared to non-treated firms, with findings robust across specifications. These effects are particularly pronounced among formal-sector firms, suggesting that institutional quality mediates the employment response to reforms. The study contributes to the political economy of development by providing causal evidence on how regulatory reforms translate into real-sector outcomes in an emerging economy. The findings have important implications for policymakers seeking to promote job creation through business environment reforms. https://jep.sbu.ac.ir/article_106932.html The Impact of Subsidies Reform on Electricity Consumption: A Data-Driven Province Selected in Iran (Dynamic Panel Data Approach)AbstractThe initial study examines how subsidies impact electricity consumption in 15 selective Iranian provinces from 2012 to 2023. The model was estimated using a dynamic panel data approach and generalized method of moment estimator. The variables, including household electricity consumption, and gas prices, demonstrate a positive influence according to the results. The provinces experience a significant decrease in electricity consumption due to variables like household electricity prices. Therefore, it is advised that energy policymakers implement suitable policies to regulate prices, particularly energy prices, in order to facilitate improvements in energy efficiency. Additionally, due to the positive effect of subscriber count on electricity usage, it is recommended to implement policies for a moderate increase in subscribers to enhance energy efficiency.Keywords: household electricity consumption, provinces of the country, dynamic panel data approach, price subsidies. https://jep.sbu.ac.ir/article_106834.html Reza Shah and Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi, father and son, ruled Iran between 1926 and 1979. During their reign Iran saw all seasons, including modernisation, dictatorship, arbitrary despotism, chaos, foreign invasion and revolution. It was also a period in which the Pahlavis’ nationalist ideology clashed with democratic ideals, communist aspirations and – ultimately – Islamist ideology. This article is analysing the above mentioned issues  https://jep.sbu.ac.ir/article_107075.html Income inequality has been widely recognized as one of the most pressing socio-economic challenges for policymakers around the world. Strong democratic institutions may contribute to a more equitable distribution of income by promoting transparency and guaranteeing accountability. This study investigates the predictive causality and long-term relationship between democracy, governance, and inequality across three country income groups: high-income, middle-income, and low-income, using data from 2006 to 2023. The analysis employs Panel co-integration, FMOLS and DOLS methodology, the Dumitrescu-Hurlin (2012) panel causality test, Pooled Mean Group regression and regression with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors. The Dumitrescu–Hurlin test suggests bidirectional predictive causality between democracy and inequality. However, these findings should be interpreted as statistical predictability rather than structural causation. Furthermore, long-term regression results (FMOLS and DOLS) reveal substantial heterogeneity across income groups. Specifically, democracy variable is associated with lower income inequality in high-income economies, whereas its effect appears positive in middle- and low-income economies. https://jep.sbu.ac.ir/article_107076.html This study employs a fuzzy logic-based approach to estimate the impact of uncertainty in key sustainability-related sectors—namely water, energy, waste, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and debt-to-capital ratio—on return on investment (ROI) over the period from 1993 to 2024. Given the inherently imprecise and dynamic nature of environmental and financial variables, fuzzy logic provides a robust framework to model vagueness and ambiguity in data. The analysis integrates longitudinal data across global markets, incorporating fuzzy sets to represent uncertain input variables and their nonlinear relationships with ROI. Results indicate that increased uncertainty in water and energy usage, as well as higher GHG emissions and waste production, negatively influence ROI, particularly when coupled with elevated debt-to-capital ratios. However, the application of sustainable practices that reduce these uncertainties can lead to more stable and higher investment returns. The findings offer strategic insights for investors and policymakers aiming to balance economic performance with environmental and financial risks. They also highlight the importance of investments needed to meet regulatory requirements, which are the main drivers for organizations at the financial level.