Estimating the Effect of Economic Growth on the Human Development Index in Iraq for the Period (1970-2022): A Quantile Regression Approach

Al-Qarghuli, Kazem Abdulaziz; Ranjpour, Reza; Behboudi, Davoud; Hodhoud, Mayeh Shabib

doi:10.48308/jep.2025.240363.1228

Estimating the Effect of Economic Growth on the Human Development Index in Iraq for the Period (1970-2022): A Quantile Regression Approach

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

¹ PhD student in Economics. Faculty of Economics and Management. University of Tabriz. Tabriz. Iran

² Associate Professor, Department of Economic Development and Planning, Faculty of Economics and Management. University of Tabriz,Tabriz, Iran

³ Associate Professor, Department of Economic Development and Planning, Faculty of Economics and Management, University of Tabriz, Tabriz. Iran.

⁴ full Professor, Department of Economics, University of Kufa, Najaf. Iraq

10.48308/jep.2025.240363.1228

Abstract

This study investigates how economic growth, along with other key variables, has influenced the Human Development Index (HDI) in Iraq over the period 1970–2022, employing a quantile regression approach. Given Iraq’s history of armed conflicts, political instability, and economic disruptions, understanding the determinants of human development has become increasingly vital, especially in the context of reconstruction efforts initiated in 2018. The quantile regression technique enables the assessment of differential effects of explanatory variables across various levels of the HDI distribution rather than relying solely on average effects. The analysis demonstrates that, for most quantiles, economic growth, public spending relative to GDP, exchange rate dynamics, and oil revenues have a positive and statistically significant impact on Iraq’s HDI. In contrast, urbanization and trade openness show a negative and statistically significant effect in several quantiles. These findings suggest that to enhance human development, the Iraqi government should adopt flexible exchange rate policies, increase productive public spending, and focus on expanding oil production and exports to raise income levels and improve social welfare.

Keywords

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