Dynamic Spillover of Economic Freedom and Economic Complexity to Wealth: Quantile Evidence from Developing Countries

Kian Poor, Saeed; Shaygani, Bita; Mohebi, Mohamad Mehdi

doi:10.48308/jep.2026.243067.1260

Dynamic Spillover of Economic Freedom and Economic Complexity to Wealth: Quantile Evidence from Developing Countries

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

Saeed Kian Poor ¹

Bita Shaygani ²

Mohamad Mehdi Mohebi ³

¹ Department of Economics, Payame Noor University (PNU), Tehran, Iran

² 2 Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Payame Noor University (PNU), Tehran, Iran

³ 3 Assistant Professor, Department of Management, Payame Noor University (PNU), Tehran, Iran

10.48308/jep.2026.243067.1260

Abstract

Greater Wealth remains a crucial aspiration for developing nations, pursued with increasing intensity in recent decades amid the rapid technological progress of developed countries. This study intends to examine and evaluate the dynamic spillover of economic freedom and dimensions of economic complexity (research, technological, and commercial) on national Wealth in 22 selected developing countries during the period from 2000 to 2023—a period when the world simultaneously experienced remarkable growth in technological products and economic complexity, alongside evident positive effects of economic freedom on noteworthy country growth rates. The selection of these countries, spanning a broad geographical expanse and showing varying degrees of growth, was informed by an era marked by crises such as the global financial crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Ukraine war. Employing the Quantile Panel Vector Autoregression (PQVAR) model and the Diebold-Yilmaz volatility spillover method, the findings show that in the lower quantiles of the wealth distribution, commercial complexity serves as the primary spillover transmitter. At the same time, per capita income is the most vulnerable recipient. In contrast, in higher quantiles, economic freedom has a central role in mitigating instability. During the aforementioned crisis periods, systemic connectedness increases, with spillovers shifting from trade and technology to income. The observations verify the critical and effective role of economic complexity and institutional freedom, as embodied in the economic freedom index, in reducing systemic vulnerability and enhancing growth stability. Accordingly, policymakers are advised to focus on improving these two indices to achieve greater Wealth and economic security in developing countries.

Keywords

Economic Freedom

Economic Complexity

Developing Countries

Quantile Regression

Dynamic Spillover

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